More Competition

U Chicago economist John Cochrane is now blogging.

A Half Dozen Short Takes

To bring in the New Year, Sunday's NY Times offers up short pieces by all six economics columnists, including yours truly.

The Burden of the Debt

Paul Krugman has several posts discussing the burden of the national debt.  Some readers have asked me for my take on the topic.  Let me refer them to this old paper I wrote with Larry Ball.  It provides a nontechnical overview.  Even though it is 16 years old, I think it holds up pretty well.

Jeremy Stein to the Fed

President Obama has nominated my Harvard colleague Jeremy Stein to become a Federal Reserve Governor.  This is an excellent choice.  Congratulations, Jeremy!

(The President has also nominated Jerome Powell, whom I do not know.)

How do the rich earn their livings?

Here is an interesting paper that answers the question.  Some highlights from Table 3 about the top 0.1 percent:

• 18 percent are financial professionals.
• 42 percent are executives, managers, or supervisors in nonfinancial businesses. More than half of those are in closely-held (presumably often small) businesses.
• 7 percent are lawyers.
• 6 percent are in medicine.
• 3 percent are in arts, media, or sports.
• Less than 1 percent are professors or scientists.  :(

I win a journalism award

Sort of.  NY Times blogger Gene Marks puts one of my columns on his list of the Best Reads of 2011.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas, and also a New Year full of miracles

Why, who makes much of a miracle?
As to me I know of nothing else but miracles,
Whether I walk the streets of Manhattan,
Or dart my sight over the roofs of houses toward the sky,
Or wade with naked feet along the beach just in the edge of the water,
Or stand under trees in the woods,
Or talk by day with any one I love, or sleep in the bed at night
with any one I love,
Or sit at table at dinner with the rest,
Or look at strangers opposite me riding in the car,
Or watch honey-bees busy around the hive of a summer forenoon,
Or animals feeding in the fields,
Or birds, or the wonderfulness of insects in the air,
Or the wonderfulness of the sundown, or of stars shining so quiet
and bright,
Or the exquisite delicate thin curve of the new moon in spring;
These with the rest, one and all, are to me miracles,
The whole referring, yet each distinct and in its place.

To me every hour of the light and dark is a miracle,
Every cubic inch of space is a miracle,
Every square yard of the surface of the earth is spread with the same,
Every foot of the interior swarms with the same.
To me the sea is a continual miracle,
The fishes that swim--the rocks--the motion of the waves--the
ships with men in them,
What stranger miracles are there?

-- Walt Whitman

The Ron Paul Portfolio

As reported by the Wall Street Journal:

Most members of Congress, like many Americans, hold some real estate, a few bonds or bond mutual funds, some individual stocks and a bundle of stock funds. Give or take a few percentage points, a typical Congressional portfolio might have 10% in cash, 10% in bonds or bond funds, 20% in real estate, and 60% in stocks or stock funds.

But Ron Paul’s portfolio isn’t merely different. It’s shockingly different.

Yes, about 21% of Rep. Paul’s holdings are in real estate and roughly 14% in cash. But he owns no bonds or bond funds and has only 0.1% in stock funds. Furthermore, the stock funds that Rep. Paul does own are all “short,” or make bets against, U.S. stocks. One is a “double inverse” fund that, on a daily basis, goes up twice as much as its stock benchmark goes down.

The remainder of Rep. Paul’s portfolio – fully 64% of his assets – is entirely in gold and silver mining stocks....

At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.

The secret is out

Click on image to enlarge.

Lessons from 2011

As seen by Olivier Blanchard.

Holiday Gift Suggestions

If you are looking for gift ideas for that special econonerd in your life, let me suggest a couple of books I recently enjoyed:

1. Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius by Silvia Nassar.
2. Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World by Michael Lewis.

Both are intelligent, well written, and fun.

A Family Holiday Trip to NYC

I just returned from New York City.  My wife, three kids, and I went down to the city for a couple days, mainly to see the Broadway show How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying before Daniel Radcliffe and John Larroquette step down from the lead roles.

It was much fun.  Daniel Radcliffe in particular was fantastic.  He provided the Mankiw family much consumer surplus.

Is modern capitalism sustainable?

My Harvard colleague Ken Rogoff gives his answer.

Are economists selfish?

Yoram Bauman takes up the question in a NY Times opinion piece, based on his research.  In essence, he finds that being an economics major and taking classes in economics are negatively correlated with how much students donate to two particular charities: WashPIRG and Affordable Tuition Now.

I agree with Yoram's concluding sentence: "Learning about the shortcomings as well as the successes of free markets is at the heart of any good economics education, and students — especially those who are not destined to major in the field — deserve to hear both sides of the story." 

Yet I am not persuaded by the evidence he gives that economics classes are failing to do that.  Maybe, having heard both sides of the story, the students make better decisions, just not the ones that Yoram appears to approve of!  Perhaps the students were persuaded by this famous insight: "By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it." 

And no, that is not Gordon Gekko.

Books on Inequality

Recommendations from MIT's Daron Acemoglu.

Shiller on Neuroeconomics

Bob describes the research frontier at the border between economics and brain science.

This Year's Nobel Lectures

From Tom Sargent and Chris Sims. Starts at about the 10:00 mark.

Steve Marglin on Heterodox Economics

This is a talk from a few days ago, as part of the "Occupy Harvard" movement. Steve says a lot of interesting things here, and I agree with more than many in the audience might suppose. A main disagreement I have with Steve is pedagogical. I believe his critiques of mainstream economics should be presented after students have had a standard course like ec 10. That is, I would suggest Steve aim his course at sophomores rather than freshmen. If he did, he could attract a lot of economics majors who had just finished ec 10, rather than nonmajors who are avoiding it.

Coffee and the Age of Reason

Taylor versus Krugman

1. John summarizes a recent Hoover conference on restoring robust economic growth.
2. Paul is annoyed at John.
3. John is annoyed at Paul.

The Education of the One Percent

The case for graduate school:

Apart from their bank accounts, Gallup finds education to be the greatest difference between the wealthiest 1% of Americans and everyone else. The Gallup analysis reveals that 72% of the wealthiest Americans have a college degree, compared with 31% of those in the lower 99 percentiles. Furthermore, nearly half of those in the wealthiest group have postgraduate education, versus 16% of all others.

A Discussion of Inequality

A recording of a recent panel at Harvard's Kennedy School, including my economics department colleagues Larry Katz and Ed Glaeser. It takes over a hour.

Eichengreen on U.S. Fiscal Policy

Barry writes:

Given low interest rates and the still-weak U.S. economy, it will be tempting for the U.S. government to continue running deficits and issuing additional debt. At some point, however, investors will recognize this behavior for the Ponzi scheme it is.

Continue reading here.

15 Years Later

It was fifteen years ago today that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exuberance" speech, which suggested that U.S. equities were overvalued. 

Between then and now, on an annualized basis,

• the return on the U.S. stock market has been 5.55 percent.
• the return on the U.S. bond market has been 5.98 percent.

Score that as one point for Alan.

Sargent and Sims

There is a nice profile of the new Nobelists in today's NY Times.  Here is an excerpt for my army of ec 10 teaching fellows (and for teachers of introductory economics everywhere):

Economics, rather than politics, became his life’s work partly because of an inspiring teaching assistant named Jerry Kenley. Fifty years later, sitting in his office at N.Y.U., Mr. Sargent remembers his old T.A.  

“Jerry liked to say, ‘Economics is organized common sense.’ I still think that’s about right,” Mr. Sargent says. Those early classes touched on everything from farm subsidies to taxation. “Wow, it really got me going,” he says.

My View of the Ec 10 Walkout

Click here to read my column in Sunday's NY Times.

Death to Pennies

A theme I have written on before. Hat tip to Alex Tabarrok.

Is my ideology that obvious?

A perspective on the Ec 10 walkout from Connel Fullenkamp, a former student who now teaches at Duke:

I really don’t think that Professor Mankiw was trying to brainwash his students with any conservative ideology or agenda. I make this statement based on my own experiences.... I was a teaching assistant for Mankiw’s first-year Ph.D. course in macroeconomics for two years, which means that I sat in on his entire course twice.

If there’s any strong ideological undercurrent in Mankiw’s teaching, I would say that it’s Nerdism: the belief that people should listen to, and learn from, nerds.  Because believe me—and I say this with genuine respect and affection—Mankiw is a nerd’s nerd.

The Draghi Deal

If I understand the news coming out of Europe correctly, the new head of the European Central Bank is offering a simple deal: If fiscal policy becomes hawkish, monetary policy will be dovish.  In other words, as government spending is cut to put European governments on a sounder financial footing, monetary policy will do its best to ensure that any adverse impact on aggregate demand is kept to a minimum. 

That seems a sensible compromise, given all the competing risks.  Indeed a similar deal might well make sense for the United States.

My more liberal friends argue, based on Keynesian principles, that we need dovish fiscal policy as well.  They often argue for short-run fiscal expansion coupled with long-run fiscal contraction. The problem is that fiscal policymakers cannot bind their future selves. It is hard to make commitments to future fiscal contraction credible, especially as short-run actions expand the budget deficit.

My more conservative friends argue, based on monetarist principles, that a dovish monetary policy risks future inflation.  In my view, however, there are bigger risks than inflation just now.  They include prolonged high unemployment and meager growth.

So I see Draghi as a fiscal hawk and monetary dove (at least under present circumstances).  I wonder, which U.S. central bankers are in the same camp?

It's all Ben's fault!

Have lunch with me

To current ec 10 students (only):

I will take up to ten students out to lunch after Wednesday's lecture at Yenching, my favorite Chinese restaurant in Harvard Square. Email me if you are interested in joining the group. First come, first served.

Richard Epstein on Inequality

Watch on PBS. See more from PBS NEWSHOUR.

What Milton Friedman might say to the Occupy movement

Some classic clips.  Thanks to Mark Perry for the pointer.

Thanksgiving Shopping Advice

Don't overemphasize local foods. 

And tomorrow, be grateful to the principle of comparative advantage.

Advice for Lost Graduate Students

From Ariel Rubinstein.

Polling Economic Experts

Chapter 2 of my favorite textbook has a table showing various propositions about which economists largely agree.  It is based on the published results from several surveys.  A new project by the IGM Forum is now regularly polling a diverse group of top economists on a variety of policy-related questions.  It is a good way to see whether a professional consensus exists.  You can follow the project by clicking here.

If you are curious, I declined being a member of the panel, mainly because time is scarce.  Moreover, I have various other ways to let my opinions be known.

Straight No Chaser

Last night was date night. My wife and I went to a concert by Straight No Chaser, the a cappella group famous for its rendition of the Twelve Days of Christmas.  The tickets were a gift from our daughter.  Thank you, Catherine.

The concert was terrific! A wonderful mix of music, from traditional holiday songs to Elvis Presley and Lady Gaga. You can find out if they are giving a show near you by clicking here.

The View from Penn (a shameless plug)

My favorite textbook is used at the University of Pennsylvania.  The student newspaper writes:

[Mankiw's] textbook, Principles of Economics, has sold more than one million copies worldwide. It is used in his own class and in Economics 002, Introduction to Macroeconomics, at Penn. The class, taught by Luca Bossi, enrolls about 200 students in the fall semester and 500 in the spring. 

Bossi chose the textbook because he believes it is one of the best introductory macroeconomics texts available in the market. He adds that the material is “clearly explained” and does not contain any partisan slants. 

“I think the fact that Professor Mankiw has advised and still is advising Republican candidates running for office gives the impression to people that he is a conservative in the way he approaches economics,” he said. However, this “is not reflected in the content of the book.”

Ugly Discrmination

Chapter 19 of my favorite textbook has a case study on the economics of beauty, highlighting research by economist Dan Hamermesh.  So I thought some blog readers might enjoy this Daily Show clip featuring Hamermesh and his work on this topic.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

The British 1 Percent

This figure, via Paul Krugman, shows the income share of the top 1 percent in the United Kingdom.  The broad pattern is very similar to what U.S. data shows.  The figure suggests that the explanation of growing inequality over the past several decades cannot be U.S.-specific but must have broader applicability.

You can generate more plots like this here.  You find a similar U-shaped pattern in Australia, Canada, Ireland, and New Zealand but much less so in France, Germany, Japan, and Sweden. Might the rising share of the top 1 percent be related to the increasing use of English as a global language?

The Long, Sad History of Industrial Policy

Solyndra is only the latest chapter.

Supply-side Policies as a Way to Boost Aggregate Demand

A new paper from the Philadelphia Fed makes an important point:

This paper examines how supply-side policies may play a role in fighting a low aggregate demand that traps an economy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates. Future increases in productivity or reductions in mark-ups triggered by supply-side policies generate a wealth effect that pulls current consumption and output up. Since the economy is at the ZLB, increases in the interest rates do not undo this wealth effect, as we will have in the case outside the ZLB. We illustrate this mechanism with a simple two-period New Keynesian model. We discuss possible objections to this set of policies and the relation of supply-side policies with more conventional monetary and fiscal policies.

On Leverage and Financial Regulation

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

A Profile of Daniel Kahneman

By Michael Lewis.

Darkness in Europe

Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen surveys the situation.

A Profile of OWS

A Harvard colleague recommends this article on Occupy Wall Street.

Input from Cornell

A student defends mainstream economics and endorses my favorite textbook:

Having used Mankiw’s textbook in an Introductory Economics class at Cornell, I can attest to the fact that the book lays a thorough and necessary foundation upon which to continue the study of economics and outlines the basic economic principles through which we understand much of our economy and society.

Why I am waking up so early

I am scheduled to be on Fox and Friends this morning.  The hit will be around 6:50 am, if you are awake, curious, and happened to be near a TV.

Update: Here is the clip.

What would John Maynard Keynes have said about Obamacare?

It is impossible to know, of course, but this passage from an open letter Keynes wrote to FDR in 1933 offers some hints (emphasis added):

You are engaged on a double task, Recovery and Reform;--recovery from the slump and the passage of those business and social reforms which are long overdue. For the first, speed and quick results are essential. The second may be urgent too; but haste will be injurious, and wisdom of long-range purpose is more necessary than immediate achievement. It will be through raising high the prestige of your administration by success in short-range Recovery, that you will have the driving force to accomplish long-range Reform. On the other hand, even wise and necessary Reform may, in some respects, impede and complicate Recovery. For it will upset the confidence of the business world and weaken their existing motives to action, before you have had time to put other motives in their place. It may over-task your bureaucratic machine, which the traditional individualism of the United States and the old "spoils system" have left none too strong. And it will confuse the thought and aim of yourself and your administration by giving you too much to think about all at once.

I know that some people would dismiss this appeal to the "confidence fairy," but clearly Keynes was a big believer in her importance to the short-run business cycle.

Race Against the Machine

MIT economist Erik Brynjolfsson emails me:

I agree with your recent blog post that "the timing suggests that the two trends--the increasing value of education and the rising share of the top 1 percent--may be related." But how are they related?  I think the biggest single factor is the digital revolution, which is boosting the economy and benefitting you, me and Paul Krugman, while leaving many people behind.  The median worker's skills and our institutions aren't keeping up with accelerating technological change.

I discuss this in my very short new ebook (about 20,000 words) with Andrew McAfee called "Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Accelerates Innovation, Drives Productivity and Irreversibly Transforms Employment and the Economy".  In it, we seek to reconcile the fact that the 2000s has been the best decade since the 1960s for productivity growth, better than the roaring 1990s even. And yet median wages have largely stagnated and employment actually has fallen since 2000. We attribute this in part to the fact that tech. progress is driving productivity even has it leaves many types of workers behind.  In fact, a large group has been made worse off, even as those with education and talent have gained immensely, and opportunities for entrepreneurs are better than ever.  In my judgment, the underlying trends are on track to accelerating in coming years.

Educating Oligarchs

In a couple of recent posts (here and here), Paul Krugman claims that it is just wrong to think that increasing income inequality is largely about education, because much of the income gains have accrued to the very top of the income distribution--the much discussed 1 percent.  Instead, he says, increasing inequality is about the growing influence of oligarchs.

I have been puzzled by Paul's argument.  My initial reaction was that it struck me as a non sequitur.  Even if the income gains are in the top 1 percent, why does that imply that the right story is not about education?

I then realized that Paul is making an implicit assumption--that the return to education is deterministic.  If indeed a year of schooling guaranteed you precisely a 10 percent increase in earnings, then there is no way increasing education by a few years could move you from the middle class to the top 1 percent.

But it may be better to think of the return to education as stochastic.  Education not only increases the average income a person will earn, but it also changes the entire distribution of possible life outcomes.  It does not guarantee that a person will end up in the top 1 percent, but it increases the likelihood.  I have not seen any data on this, but I am willing to bet that the top 1 percent are more educated than the average American; while their education did not ensure their economic success, it played a role.

Let me give you a couple examples.  I am comfortably in the top 1 percent.  I believe that Paul, with his Princeton professorship, regular Times column, speaking fees, and moderately successful textbook, is there as well. I suspect (although cannot prove) that if he and I had stopped our educations after finishing high school, we would not have been anywhere near where we are in the income distribution.  If that is correct, might it be better to think of education as the key rather than focusing on the growing influence of oligarchs?

I am inclined to think that education is important here in part because the large increase in the share of the top 1 percent from the 1970s to the present occurred together with the increase in the rate of return to education during this period documented by labor economists.  It is possible, of course, that the the two phenomena just happened to occur simultaneously.  But the timing suggests that the two trends--the increasing value of education and the rising share of the top 1 percent--may be related.

Addendum: Here is a related old post.

I speak with NPR

Occupy Wall Street comes to Ec 10

The Harvard Crimson has the story.  Ironically, the topic for today's lecture is the distribution of income, including the growing gap between the top 1 percent and the bottom 99 percent.  I am sorry the protesters will miss it.

Updates:

1. The open letter that attacks ec 10.
2. A student comes to ec 10's defense.
3. Here's what happened: About 5 to 10 percent of the class participated in the walk-out. At the same time, some previous ec 10 students came in to sit in the lecture as counter-protesters. The lecture then proceeded as planned.
4. The Crimson offers an editorial on the protest.

The Distributional Effects of the Perry Plan

...as estimated by the Tax Policy Center.

Try This One

Source.

More on a Nominal GDP Target

Christy Romer makes the case for a new framework for monetary policy.  She is kind enough to remind us of this old paper that Bob Hall and I wrote on the topic.  For more on this subject, including further links, click here.

The Impact of Economics Blogs

If this study is right, my providing you with this link will greatly increase its visibility.

My Lecture at Princeton

I gave a lecture at my alma mater last week.  You can watch it by clicking here.  It's a bit over an hour.

The Budget Deficit

A panel discussion at MIT, with Peter Diamond, Jeff Leibman, Deborah Lucas, Robert Solow, and yours truly.  It takes about 90 minutes.

The Rich Get Poorer

Here is a fact that you might not have heard from the Occupy Wall Street crowd: The incomes at the top of the income distribution have fallen substantially over the past few years. 

According to the most recent IRS data, between 2007 and 2009, the 99th percentile income (AGI, not inflation-adjusted) fell from $410,096 to $343,927.  The 99.9th percentile income fell from $2,155,365  to $1,432,890.  During the same period, median income fell from $32,879 to $32,396. 

These recent numbers illustrate the broader phenomenon, discussed in this paper, that high-income households have riskier-than-average incomes.

Fates to Avoid

Click here to read my column in Sunday's NY Times.

Nordhaus on Energy Economics

A smart friend recommends this article by Yale economist Bill Nordhaus.  The Pigou Club endorses the conclusion:

The need for taxes on energy externalities such as carbon emissions is central to our ability to reduce the harmful side effects of economic growth. It is striking how the political dialogue in the US has ignored a policy that has so many desirable features. Perhaps, in the near future, faced with the deadline of a dire economic situation, negotiators will formulate such a policy. It would generate substantial revenues while bringing so many long-run economic and environmental benefits. Simply put, externality taxes are the best fiscal instrument to employ at this time, in this country, and given the fiscal constraints faced by the US.

After Keynesian Macroeconomics

A reenactment of a famous collaboration, starring Ellen McGrattan as Robert Lucas and Pat Kehoe as Tom Sargent.

The Latest from Merle Hazard

The Distributional Effects of 9-9-9

...as evaluated by the Tax Policy Center.

A Target Path for Nominal GDP

...is a monetary policy endorsed by Goldman Sachs economists.

The Increased Role of the Minimum Wage

I am in the process of revising my intermediate macro book.  As I was updating the section on the minimum wage, I was struck by how much the data has changed over three years.  The minimum wage has a much larger role now than it did three years ago, in large part because of the legislated increase in the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 an hour.  For example, comparing the 2010 data with the 2007 data, one finds the following:

• The percentage of all hourly-paid workers paid at or below the minimum wage rose from 2.3 to 6.0 percent.
• The percentage of part-time workers paid at or below the minimum wage rose from 5 to 14 percent.
• The percentage of teenage workers paid at or below the minimum wage rose from 7 to 25 percent.

Question for class discussion:  In light of what is occurring with the overall economy during this period, how would you evaluate the policy change regarding the minimum wage?

First XI: A Burning Hatred

This weekend sees Lazio take on Roma and Liverpool host Manchester United (as discussed in Best of Enemies and A Rivalry in Deepest Red). Here, we look at some of the most hate-filled rivalries in world football.


Fun in Bulgaria...

Friday MLS Forecast

The Forecast notes the importance of taking a week off for international matches in November and sorts through the Week 31 fixture list.

Italy: Serie A Weekend Previews

AC Milan and Inter Milan go into this weekend's Serie A games having to play catch-up after slow starts to the season. The former host Palermo on Saturday after mustering just five points in the opening five league games and lie six points behind joint leaders Juventus and Udinese. Inter, meanwhile, have won just one of their Serie A games so far and are 17th in the standings - one point behind Milan, their worst start in 28 years. The Nerazzurri have conceded away a league-high 11 goals. They travel to Sicily to face Catania on Saturday without suspended Andrea Ranocchia and Joel Obi, while coach Claudio Ranieri must serve a one-match touchline ban. Lazio are hoping to recover their top scorer Miroslav Klose in time for Sunday's derby against Roma. The Germany international is doubtful for the encounter with a knee injury. Roma, who are level on eight points with Lazio, are without injured captain Francesco Totti but could hand Erik Lamela his debut.

Preview

Lazio vs. Roma: Team News, Predicted Lineups, Preview and Prediction

Spain: La Liga Weekend Preview + Eduardo Alvarez's Quiniela

Racing Santander midfielder Pape Diop is optimistic his side can defy expectations and pick up points against Barcelona. Barca head into the match sitting top of the La Liga standings and having won their three home fixtures at the Nou Camp this season by a combined 18-0 scoreline, thrashing Osasuna 8-0 and Villarreal and Atletico Madrid 5-0 each. Barca, the reigning European and Spanish champions, lead the table on goal difference ahead of surprise package Levante. Along with Barca and Sevilla, Levante are one of only three teams yet to lose in La Liga, but the Valencia-based club's unbeaten record could come under threat as they play host to big-spending Malaga, who have picked up 13 points from a possible 15 since an opening-day loss to Sevilla. In third spot are Real Madrid, who face stumbling Real Betis at the Bernabeu on Saturday.

Preview

Eduardo Alvarez's Quiniela

England: Premier League Weekend Previews & Predictions

The Premier League returns in style as long-standing rivals Liverpool and Manchester United go into battle on Saturday lunchtime. Chelsea trail the leaders by three points and Andre Villas-Boas will not want to lose any further ground when taking on Everton at Stamford Bridge in Saturday's evening kick-off. Meanwhile, Newcastle host Tottenham, Arsenal host Sunderland, and Manchester City host Villa. Elsewhere, Swansea and Norwich clash, Wigan and Bolton fight at the bottom, and Fulham meet Stoke.

Preview

Liverpool vs. Manchester United: Preview
Alan Hansen: Crunch time for Liverpool

Newcastle vs. Tottenham: Preview

Chelsea vs. Everton: Kevin Keegan's Preview

Arsenal vs. Sunderland: Preview

Lawro's Predictions

Premier League Spotlight

Liverpool v Manchester United: Basketball star and Anfield stakeholder Lebron James jets in for clash

James, who bought a stake in the Merseyside club last April, will attend Saturday’s fixture with Manchester United alongside owners John W. Henry and Tom Werner.

Sir Alex Ferguson calls on travelling fans to cease Hillsborough chants

Ferguson takes his team to Anfield tomorrow and has requested United fans stop singing taunting songs about the 1989 FA Cup semi-final at in Sheffield at which 96 Liverpool supporters died.






You Are A Scouser
(to the tune of 'You Are My Sunshine')
You are a scouser,
An ugly* scouser,
You're only happy, on giro day.
When your dad's out stealing,
Your mum's drug-dealing,
But please don't take.. my hubcaps... away
[*= the word 'ugly' often replaced with 'thieving' or 'lonely')

Sid Lowe in Spain

It has been clear for some time that the Spanish will be at next season's European Championships in Poland and Ukraine. The question now is which of the Spanish?

Predicted Spain squad for Euro 2012:

Iker Casillas, Pepe Reina, Víctor Valdés, Sergio Ramos, Carles Puyol, Gerard Pique, Álvaro Arbeloa, Jordi Alba, Raúl Albiol, Javi Martínez, Xabi Alonso, Xavi Hernandez, Santi Cazorla, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Juan Mata, David Silva, Thiago, David Villa, Fernando Llorente, Fernando Torres, Pedro

Grant Wahl: World Cup rights bidding to have major implications for U.S. soccer

Next Wednesday is one of the most important days of the next decade for soccer in the United States. That's when bids are due in Zürich, Switzerland, for the U.S. broadcast rights for World Cups '18 and '22. ESPN, NBC and Fox are expected to bid for the English-language rights, while Univisión and NBC-owned Telemundo are expected to be in competition for the Spanish-language rights. After the bids are submitted on Wednesday -- there will be no formal presentations, as there were for the Olympic rights bids earlier this year -- the FIFA executive committee will meet on Thursday and could reach a decision on the winners as soon as that day.

Why do the World Cup rights bids matter so much for soccer here? The winners will be committed to helping build the audience for the sport through 2022, which is no small thing. ESPN, which paid $100 million for the English-language rights for World Cups '10 and '14, made the 2010 World Cup one of the company's top priorities last year. It promoted the event heavily, received positive reviews for its coverage and reaped the rewards: The U.S.-Ghana second round game, for example, drew a total U.S. audience of 19.4 million, more than all but two games of the '09 World Series and all but Game 7 of the '10 NBA Finals. Audiences should be even bigger for World Cup 2014 in Brazil, not least because many of the games will be taking place during prime time on U.S. television.

The Steve Kean Conundrum

Manchester City, Pune, QPR. Blackburn's is an unusual fixture list at the moment. Rovers return to a relegation battle this weekend after their October interlude in India, when manager Steve Kean received the wholehearted support of owners Venky's. As with much at the club, however, it brought rather more questions than answers. Such as...

Jon Carter: Rewind to 1961

Lionel Messi could become the standalone second highest scorer in Barcelona's history on Saturday night as the Spanish champions take on struggling Racing Santander - Messi needs just one goal to pass Ladislao Kubala's 194-goal record in all competitions. César still stands in his way but, while the 24-year-old continues to press his claims as a Barcelona great, he still has some way to go to overhaul the legacy that Kubala left when he played his last game for the club on August 30, 1961.

Three Match Ban: Fabio Capello has to make big decision over Wayne Rooney for Euro 2012

Fabio Capello has been forced to consider leaving Wayne Rooney out of his squad for Euro 2012 after Uefa's control and disciplinary body handed the England striker a three-match ban that will rule him out of the group stage of next summer's tournament in Poland and Ukraine.


Paul Hayward: Rooney banished to the role of England's accidental tourist

Even leftists believe in property rights

...at least when it comes to their property. 

From one of the recent protests:

Photo by Elizabeth Fama
Click on photo to enlarge.

Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney could be sent over the edge by Anfield cauldron

The scene is Anfield, and the clocks on a seething Merseyside have just ticked over to 12.45pm. Wayne Rooney struggles to quell a surge of defiance, all the more primal for the vitriol cascading from the Kop.

Paul Marshall: The View From France

Lovely Margarita, Marseille's very own meter maid, is not a happy woman. The widow of Robert Louis-Dreyfus - or RLD as he was known by French football journalists - has inherited his billionaire fortune, the dubious honour of also seeing her name acronym-ed in print, and his football club. In the wake of OM's title triumph and her husband's death, she vowed to continue to plough money into the club. The woeful start to the current season, though, has led the Russian-born blonde to not only threaten to clamp down on spending, but even perhaps allow the club to be towed off by another owner.

Female fans strip off to raise money for struggling Polish football club

Several female supporters of Polish football team Hutnik Krakow have stripped off and posed for a calendar in order to raise money for the struggling club.

USA: Klinsmann looking at long-term changes

He is trying new formations, new assistants and a new fitness staff. He’s also working with Gulati, USSF chief executive officer Dan Flynn and youth technical director Claudio Reyna on planning for next year’s Olympics, where players are mostly limited to 23 and under.

Klinsmann estimates about one-third of his 2014 World Cup roster will come from the Olympic team. He projects forwards Jozy Altidore, Juan Agudelo and Teal Bunbury; midfielder Danny Williams; defender Timmy Chandler; and goalkeeper Bill Hamid as making the London roster.

Luis Figo's Just For Men Advertisement

David Hytner: Luka Modric presents Tottenham challenge that will define future

Daniel Levy faced down the Croat's transfer demands in the summer but his contract talks give rise to new problems.

Paul Merson arrested on suspicion of drink-driving after M40 crash

Paul Merson has been arrested on suspicion of drink-driving after crashing his Mercedes into a lorry on the M40 near Warwick in the early hours of Wednesday morning.







Very sad. I guess he's off the wagon...

UEFA Euro 2012 Play-off Draw

Republic of Ireland have landed the ideal Euro 2012 play-off draw as they take on Estonia, while Portugal face Bosnia, Czech Republic play Montenegro and Turkey take on Croatia in a rerun of the Euro 2008 quarter-final.

Games to be played November 11 and 15

Turkey	v	Croatia
Estonia	v	Ireland
Czech Republic	v	Montenegro
Bosnia-Herzegovina	v	Portugal

The Monetary System of the Future?

A friend sends me this photo from some of the recent protests.

The sign says, "1. End Debt-based Fiat currencies. 2. End Fractional Reserve and Compound Interest Banking. 3. End the Fed."

Question for class discussion: What kind of monetary system would satisfy these demands?  What are the pros and cons of this alternative system?

Jonathan Wilson: Safet Susic calls on Bosnia to find belief for Euro 2012 play-offs

Bosnia must find emotional strength after letting Euro 2012 qualification slip away in Tuesday's 1-1 draw with France.

Ewan Murray: Craig Levein must be given time to lead Scotland from the wilderness

Despite the failure to reach Euro 2012 there were enough positive signs in the defeat to Spain for Scotland to stick with their manager.

Paul Doyle: Hypocrisy not at hand despite Republic of Ireland's slice of luck

The sending-off of Armenia's goalkeeper after the ball struck Simon Cox's arm has brought unfair comparisons with Thierry Henry's infamous double handball two years ago.

FIFA World Cup 2014: Asian ambitions taking shape

Arsenal striker Park Chu-Young left the pitch during South Korea's 2-1 World Cup qualification win over United Arab Emirates looking a little confused. It could have been the clash of heads that required ten stitches or he could have been wondering why, as he is currently the number one striker in Asia, he is unable to get any playing time for the London club.

Tevez facing further punishment

The Argentina international has already given his version of events to City, with the forward seemingly suggesting he refused to repeat his warm up, rather than refuse to enter the field of play at the Allianz Arena.

ESPNsoccernet has now learned Tevez will be given an opportunity to react to City's findings from their inquiry. Conflicting opinions are believed to have been offered by the various players who sat alongside Tevez on the substitutes' bench.

Californication certainly deserves additional punishment...

Former Fifa vice-president Jack Warner is caught on tape offering 'gifts’ of £25,000 to Caribbean delegates

Telegraph Sport has seen the remarkable footage in which Warner, the controversial former vice-president of Fifa, appears to be recorded telling other members of the Caribbean Football Union members they must decide whether to accept the “gifts” of $40,000 (£25,000) each, and urging them to vote for Bin Hammam rather than Sepp Blatter in the Fifa presidential elections.

International Friendly: USA 0 - 1 Ecuador

Jurgen Klinsmann is finding wins and goals hard to come by in his first few months as coach of the U.S. soccer team. "It's going to take time," goalkeeper Tim Howard said after Tuesday night's 1-0 exhibition loss to Ecuador dropped the Americans to 1-3-1 since the former German star and coach replaced Bob Bradley in late July. "People are going to ask questions, and that's natural. But it's still in the infant stages."

Grant Wahl: Three Thoughts

Martin Rogers: USA impotent under Klinsmann

Player Ratings

Euro 2012 play-offs: the eight teams still fighting for four places, in pictures

Turkey, Group A
Finished: 2nd, 13 points behind Germany

Turkey's 1-0 win over Azerbaijan saw them pip Belgium into second spot in Group A after the Belgians lost 3-1 away to Germany. The Germans finished with a 100 per cent record with 30 points from their 10 games.

The Other Seven

UEFA Euro 2012 Qualifying: Danes deny Portugal, France through

Denmark beat Portugal to an automatic place at Euro 2012 with a 2-1 victory in their winner-takes-all meeting in Copenhagen. Samir Nasri's penalty took France to the finals after a tense Paris evening saw them draw 1-1 against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Sweden booked their place after two goals in a minute early in the second period secured a 3-2 victory over Netherlands to qualify as the best-placed second-placed team in all the qualifiers. Richard Dunne was the Republic of Ireland's hero once again as his goal edged them past Armenia as a 2-1 win took them into the play-offs on a night when both sides had a man sent off. Serbia's hopes were ended by Slovenia who took all three points with a 1-0 win in Maribor.

Review

Just who owns Leeds United?

When the House of Commons select committee for culture, media and sport began its inquiry into the running of football in December - its brief to encourage supporter ownership of clubs - the MPs did not envisage the spotlight they would ultimately shine on Leeds United.

On 29 July, when the committee finally reported, its members had, according to one of the committee's key MPs, Damian Collins, been "appalled" by what they had discovered.

For six years, between 2005 and 2011, with Ken Bates the chairman throughout, nobody in football knew who owned Leeds United, one of football's biggest and most famed clubs.

Tim Vickery in South America

It's the same teams, three months apart, coming up with a totally different spectacle.

Back in July the Copa America in Argentina was always enthralling, but its fascination was frequently the grim, attritional kind, with defences holding the upper hand.

Now in October, the first round of South America's marathon World Cup qualification campaign produced four open games - at times absurdly so - and 15 goals.

Much of this can be explained by the differing demands of tournament and league football.

African Nations Cup Qualifying: South Africa's sums don't add up

South Africa has a literacy rate of 88%, well above Niger's 28.7%, Sierra Leone's 38% or Egypt's 66.4% but still, they failed to read the rules and were baffled when they were told they had missed out on the tournament. South Africa started off confused, then irate, then despairing and then just plain spoilt brat loser-ish when they decided to appeal to CAF.

Euro 2012: Who needs what in final round of qualifying

England have joined reigning champions Spain, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and co-hosts Poland and Ukraine in qualification for Euro 2012 but five automatic places are yet to be decided.

The Key Fixtures



We take a group-by-group look at who can still qualify, and how they can get to the finals. Head to head record comes before goal difference in this qualifying campaign.

England: West Ham bid again as Olympic stadium deal collapses

West Ham United and Leyton Orient have confirmed that they will bid to become tenants of the Olympic Stadium after the original deal to house the former in the venue collapsed due to legal challenges.

International Friendly Previews: USA vs. Ecuador

When: 7 p.m. EDT
Where: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, N.J.
U.S. TV: ESPN2, Univisión, ESPN3.com
Preview

Grant Wahl: Ecuador a tougher challenge

U.S. need offensive jolt

Jonathan Wilson: Tensions rise, sparks fly as Greece, Croatia go their separate ways

Friday should have been a night of triumph for Greece. A 2-0 win over Croatia moved it back to the top of its Euro 2012 qualifying group, and a draw away to Georgia on Tuesday will guarantee the top spot in the group, while Slaven Bilic's Croatian side has to go through a playoff. But the events in the stand that caused the match to be stopped for seven minutes cast a long shadow. None of Greece's 11 national sports papers led with the hooliganism, but these were serious outbreaks, not something to be brushed under the carpet of a satisfactory result.

Uli Hesse in Germany

Later this week, I'll have a reading together with a friend of mine in a city called Hamm. I don't mention this to shamelessly advertise the event, since most of you won't have the means, the time or the inclination to leg it to the north-eastern edge of the Ruhr area on such short notice.

Rather, I mention this reading because of my friend. He is not a professional writer but has already published four books with a fifth in the making. (Gosh, he's got too much time on his hands, doesn't he?) In one way or another, the books all deal with the same football club. My friend is a Schalke fan.

Actually, that's why we're having the reading in the first place.

It's billed as a "literary derby". My friend will read stuff from his growing collection of Schalke-related tomes, while I consider selecting mid-90s pieces that appeared in the first Borussia Dortmund fanzine to go with more recent articles I have done about Dortmund's famous terrace, the South Stand, and the winger Reinhard Libuda, one of the men who played for both clubs.